What is the Probability that Home Values Sink?

This question reminds me of a kind of smart aleck response we used to say back in South Dakota where I was growing up. The chances of that happening are Slim and None and Slim just left town.

Now are the chances that home prices go down actually zero – of course not. But they are low, low, low. Why you ask? Because none of the easy money policies of our federal government that produced the melt down of 2008 are present today.  Granted, I would feel MUCH MUCH BETTER, if we really had home mortgage lending decisions being made with local market driven guidelines and local skin in the game. But, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not running amok in the current administration (like they did back before the 2008  meltdown). And the Trump administration seems to have plans to privatize them  which would also do a lot for overall housing market stability over time. 

Does this mean we will never again have a  housing market price correction, No. But it is not in the foreseeable future at this point in time and the long term house price trends are UP, UP, UP.

Like to know more, just call or text to 484-574-4088 and lets set up a time to talk. No cost or obligation of course. 

What Is the Probability That Home Values Sink?| MyKCM

With the current uncertainty about the economy triggered by a potential trade war, some people are waiting to purchase their first home or move-up to their dream house because they think or hope home prices will drop over the next few years. However, the experts disagree with this perspective.

Here is a table showing the predicted levels of appreciation from six major housing sources:What Is the Probability That Home Values Sink?| MyKCMAs we can see, every source believes home prices will continue to appreciate (albeit at lower levels than we have seen over the last several years). But, not one source is calling for residential real estate values to depreciate.

Additionally, ARCH Mortgage Insurance Company in their current Housing and Mortgage Market Review revealed their latest ARCH Risk Index, which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. There was not one state that even had a moderate probability of home prices lowering. In fact, 34 of the 50 states had a minimal probability.What Is the Probability That Home Values Sink?| MyKCM

Bottom Line

Those waiting for prices to fall before purchasing a home should realize that the probability of that happening anytime soon is very low. With mortgage rates already at near historic lows, now may be the time to act.

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