WEST CHESTER, PA REAL ESTATE. WEATHERING UNCERTAINTIES WITH OPTIMISM

Please watch the video first. It kind of sets up the whole article.

West Chester, PA Real Estate: Weathering Uncertainties with Optimism

The real estate market in West Chester, PA, is a focal point of discussion for buyers and sellers alike, especially with the looming concerns about a potential recession and its possible effects on the economy. This raises questions about the implications for the housing market in our picturesque Pennsylvania town.

Recent talks have been dominated by the potential of a recession, sparking fears such as increased unemployment rates and the possibility of foreclosures like those witnessed 15 years ago. However, the sentiment is shifting towards optimism.

A key report from the Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey underscores this change in attitude. Now, less than half of the economists (48%) foresee a recession in the next year, a notable decrease from the 54% average in July. This is the first instance in over a year where the likelihood has fallen below 50%, indicating a more stable economic forecast for the West Chester area.

The concern regarding rising unemployment rates is pertinent to its impact on the housing market. Yet, current projections are reassuring. While some job losses might occur, they are not expected to be severe enough to trigger a widespread wave of foreclosures or significantly destabilize the housing market.

To understand this better, it’s useful to look at historical data from Macrotrends and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The current unemployment rate is close to historic lows. For context, the average unemployment rate since 1948 is 5.7%, and it peaked at 8.3% during the 2008 crisis. Today’s figures are substantially lower than these historical benchmarks, indicating a stronger employment landscape.

Future projections suggest that the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average, a positive sign for the housing market in West Chester, PA. This implies a low risk of a housing market crash due to a surge in foreclosures.

For sellers, the situation is favorable. Homes in West Chester are selling quickly, often within a week of listing, provided they are well-marketed and priced appropriately. Prices have risen by 13% in the past two years through November, and the trend is expected to continue due to the limited housing inventory, which currently stands at a 3-4 month supply.

For buyers, especially those upgrading their homes, finding the right property requires a skilled realtor, especially in this competitive market. I have a strategy just for move up buyers that works successfully and avoids the risk of not finding that house that you will love.

For first-time buyers, while higher mortgage rates may be a concern, there are innovative strategies to manage this challenge. With house prices predicted to keep rising in the coming years, now is an opportune time to enter the market.

In summary, the West Chester, PA real estate market stands resilient and strong, even amidst economic uncertainties. Most economists now discount the likelihood of an imminent recession and do not anticipate a significant rise in unemployment leading to a housing market downturn. For those concerned about unemployment and its effect on the West Chester housing market, it’s an excellent time to seek expert advice and explore local real estate opportunities.

here is what you need to do to make the right decision for you

  • Buyers: If you’ve been holding off on buying because you were worried the value of your home would go down, knowing home prices are stable and increasing is reasuring. It also gives you the opportunity to own something that usually becomes more valuable as time goes on.
  • Sellers: If you’ve been waiting to sell your house because you were concerned about how changing home prices would affect its value, this should also reassure you. Even with the recent increase in mortgage rates, teaming with a real estate agent and getting your house on the market is the logical and smartest thing to do.
  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move. I would like to become that real estate expert upon whom you can lean.
  • Let’s connect on the computer and have a virtual meeting. That is a great way to learn and see if I am the person you would like to do business with. Just call or text to 484-574-4088 or email to john@johnherreid.com
  • Do I think that now is a good time to buy that first house or to sell and make that move up buy?  Again, absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is changing, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor. Again we can do that in person or on the computer.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are clear opportunities for sellers right now. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, let’s connect on Zoom, in person or on the phone at 484 574 4088.

MEDIA, PA’S PATH TO PROSPERITY: LEVERAGING HOME EQUITY FOR WEALTH

Media, PA’s Path to Prosperity: Leveraging Home Equity for Wealth

In the heart of Media, PA, there’s a narrative unfolding that’s crucial for residents aiming to build wealth through home equity. Despite conflicting reports, the reality is that Media’s real estate market is experiencing a consistent rise in home values, debunking any fears of plummeting prices. This progression is not just a trend but an opportunity for homeowners in the Media area to enhance their financial stability.

Seasonal Patterns and Long-Term Growth in Media’s Real Estate Market

Much like the changing seasons, Media’s housing market follows a rhythm that sees fluctuations in activity and prices throughout the year. Spring ushers in a wave of home buying, usually, but not always pushing prices higher, a trend that often extends into the summer. As fall approaches, the market cools down, and sometimes prices will go down temporarily. But this doesn’t imply a decline in value. Instead, it’s part of the natural ebb and flow of supply and demand.

To accurately gauge Media’s market, it’s more informative to look at year-over-year data rather than month-over-month figures. This longer-term perspective provides a clearer picture of the market’s health and growth trajectory.

Debunking Misconceptions: The Truth About Media’s Home Prices

Local and national media often portray an image of declining prices, but this doesn’t reflect Media’s reality. The market is adjusting to a more regular growth pattern, not experiencing a downturn. This misconception underscores the importance of relying on insights from local real estate experts who deeply understand Media’s unique market dynamics.

For instance, while there might be months where home prices slightly decrease, the overall annual figures tell a story of robust growth. This pattern, consistent in both 2022 and 2023, highlights the enduring strength of Media’s real estate market.

MEDIAN SALES PRICES, MEDIA AREA, SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED, 2021 THRU 10/2023
Month Sale Price Sale Price Sale Price
2021 2022 2023
Jan $588,000 $650,000 $771,000
Feb $589,000 $575,000 $858,748
Mar $714,250 $610,000 $695,000
Apr $616,000 $625,000 $673,750
May $615,000 $712,000 $700,000
Jun $675,000 $680,000 $633,500
Jul $693,000 $750,000 $697,500
Aug $647,500 $791,500 $805,000
Sep $597,265 $677,000 $685,000
Oct $635,000 $609,000 $770,000
Nov $645,000 $700,000
Dec $575,000 $630,000
Annual Average $632,501 $667,458
Difference $34,957
% Difference 5.5%
Annual Thru October $642,446 $669,944 $724,278
Difference $27,498 $54,333
% Difference 4.3% 8.1%
Year over Year Positive, 10 of 12 months from 2021 to 2022
Year over Year Positive, 6 of 10 months from 2022 to 2023, Year to Date
Overall assessment, strong selling price growth is continuing.
Wallingford Swarthmore, Rose Tree Media, Radnor, Garnet Valley School Districts

 

Embracing Media’s Real Estate Market for Wealth Building

Understanding the real dynamics at play in Media’s housing market is key for residents looking to build wealth through home equity. Rather than being swayed by short-term fluctuations or sensational headlines, savvy homeowners can look to the consistent upward trend in home values as a foundation for long-term financial planning and wealth accumulation.

In conclusion, Media’s real estate market offers a stable and promising avenue for wealth building. By recognizing the seasonal nature of the market and focusing on long-term growth, residents can confidently leverage their home equity to secure financial prosperity.

here is what you need to do to make the right decision for you

  • Buyers: If you’ve been holding off on buying because you were worried the value of your home would go down, knowing home prices are stable and increasing is reasuring. It also gives you the opportunity to own something that usually becomes more valuable as time goes on.
  • Sellers: If you’ve been waiting to sell your house because you were concerned about how changing home prices would affect its value, this should also reassure you. Even with the recent increase in mortgage rates, teaming with a real estate agent and getting your house on the market is the logical and smartest thing to do.
  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move. I would like to become that real estate expert upon whom you can lean.
  • Let’s connect on the computer and have a virtual meeting. That is a great way to learn and see if I am the person you would like to do business with. Just call or text to 484-574-4088 or email to john@johnherreid.com
  • Do I think that now is a good time to buy that first house or to sell and make that move up buy?  Again, absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is changing, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor. Again we can do that in person or on the computer.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are clear opportunities for sellers right now. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, let’s connect on Zoom, in person or on the phone at 484 574 4088.

HOW INFLATION AFFECTS HOME MORTGAGE RATES

HOW INFLATION AFFECTS  Real Estate Mortgage Rates

Inflation is a term that refers to the general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. It impacts various sectors of the economy, including the real estate market. Particularly, inflation has a significant effect on mortgage rates, a factor that potential homeowners need to consider carefully.

Mortgage rates are the interest rates applied to a loan secured by real estate. They are determined by a variety of factors such as the inflation rate, economic growth indicators, and the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve. Understanding the relationship between inflation and mortgage rates is crucial, as it can impact one’s decision on when to buy a home or refinance a mortgage.

Historically, higher inflation tends to result in higher mortgage rates. The reason is simple: Lenders need to maintain a positive real rate of return. If the inflation rate is 3%, for instance, and the lender charges a mortgage rate of 4%, then their real rate of return is approximately 1%.

When inflation rises, lenders increase mortgage rates to compensate for the loss in purchasing power of the money they will be repaid in the future. Hence, a surge in inflation can lead to a rise in mortgage rates, increasing the cost of buying a home or refinancing an existing mortgage. On the flip side, periods of low inflation often coincide with lower mortgage rates, which can make home buying more affordable.

However, it’s important to remember that while inflation is a key driver, it’s not the only factor that influences mortgage rates. Other factors, like changes in economic growth or Federal Reserve policy, can also cause mortgage rates to fluctuate.

In conclusion, inflation has a profound impact on the real estate market, especially on real estate mortgage rates. As potential homeowners, understanding this relationship can help in making more informed decisions about when to enter the market. To navigate through these economic shifts, one must stay informed about recent inflation trends and consult with a trusted financial advisor.

Mortgage rates are up a lot.

HERE IS WHAT YOU NEED TO DO TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION FOR YOU

  • Buyers: If you’ve been holding off on buying because you were worried the value of your home would go down, knowing home prices are stable and increasing is reasuring. It also gives you the opportunity to own something that usually becomes more valuable as time goes on.
  • Sellers: If you’ve been waiting to sell your house because you were concerned about how changing home prices would affect its value, this should also reassure you. Even with the recent increase in mortgage rates, teaming with a real estate agent and getting your house on the market is the logical and smartest thing to do.
  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move. I would like to become that real estate expert upon whom you can lean.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to buy that first house or to sell and make that move up buy?  Again, absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, let’s connect
  • There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will be wrong.
  • Let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you keep everything in proper perspective.

HOME PRICES IN THE MEDIA, RADNOR, GARNET VALLEY AREAS DID NOT COLLAPSE!!!

When I was in the corporate world we had a definition of “Expert”.  That is somebody who is wearing a suit and is more than 25 miles from home. Not all “Experts” deserve that sarcasm, but the ones who predicted an upcoming housing price collapse sure do.

First of all the below chart shows what happend to house prices in the West Chester Area.

WALLINGFORD SWARTHMORE, ROSE TREE MEDIA, RADNOR, MARPLE NEWTOWN
GARNET VALLEY, SPRINGFIELD MEDIAN SALES PRICES 2021 THRU MAY 2023
Month Sale Price Sale Price Year over Year Sale Price Year over Year
2021 2022 Difference 2023 Difference
% %
Jan $500,000 $552,500 10.5% $616,376 11.6%
Feb $500,000 $500,000 0.0% $733,500 46.7%
Mar $575,000 $552,500 -3.9% $550,000 -0.5%
Apr $526,000 $527,500 0.3% $540,000 2.4%
May $563,500 $621,000 10.2% $600,000 -3.4%
Jun $582,500 $585,000 0.4%
Jul $589,450 $587,500 -0.3%
Aug $552,500 $671,900 21.6%
Sep $536,500 $607,500 13.2%
Oct $537,500 $570,000 6.0%
Nov $531,000 $623,000 17.3%
Dec $500,000 $510,000 2.0%
Annual $541,163 $575,700 6.4%
YTD, May $550,700 $607,975 10.4%

In 2022, prices were up a hefty 6.4% % from 2021. During the first 5 months of 2023 when the “crash” was predicted, that trend continued with a 10.4% rise from 2022.

One variable that has gone down a lot in the number of sales.  Please see the below chart:

WALLINGFORD SWARTHMORE, RADNOR, ROSE TREE MEDIA, MARPLE NEWTOWN,
SPRINGFIELD, GARNET VALLEY, NUMBER OF SALES 2021 THROUGH MAY 2021
Month Sales Sales Sales
2021 2022 2023
Jan 121 114 58
Feb 81 91 54
Mar 122 127 89
Apr 141 132 91
May 144 139 131
Jun 232 193
Jul 196 156
Aug 180 166
Sep 149 110
Oct 156 88
Nov 146 110
Dec 146 97
Annual 1814 1523
%^ Diff -16.0%
YTD, May 609 603 423
% Diff -29.9%
Sales were basically level in 2022; but then went down by almost 30% in the first 5 months of 2023 compared to the first five months of 2021.

THAT IS HUGE!!!

But prices are still going up because buyer demand is high and there are fewer houses for sale. Higher demand and lowered supply always results in higher prices.

NOW WHAT DID THE EXPERTS PREDICT JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO?

During the fourth quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:

Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:

“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:

“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.”

Goldman Sachs:

“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”

THE BAD NEWS: IT RATTLED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.

THE GOOD NEWS: HOME PRICES NEVER CRASHED

However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months.

In a report just released, Goldman Sachs explained:

“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”

Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:

Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.

One of the lessons here is that all real estate is local and to understand the market you really should consult a local expert rather than a national onel

BOTTOM LINE

When the forecasts of significant home price depreciation were made last fall, they were made with megaphones. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts all broadcasted the news of an eminent crash in prices.

Now, forecasters are saying the worst is over and it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as they originally projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility – some may say duty – to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move. I would like to become that real estate expert upon whom you can lean.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to buy that first house or to sell and make that move up buy?  Again, absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, let’s connect
  • There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the ‘unicorn’ years. Let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you keep everything in proper perspective.

HOME PRICES IN WEST CHESTER AREA DID NOT CRASH!!!

When I was in the corporate world we had a definition of “Expert”.  That is somebody who is wearing a suit and is more than 25 miles from home. Not all “Experts” deserve that sarcasm, but the ones who predicted an upcoming housing price collapse sure do.

First of all the below chart shows what happend to house prices in the West Chester Area.

WEST CHESTER, DOWNINGTOWN, GREAT VALLEY, MEDIAN SALE PRICES
Month Sale Price Sale Price Year Over Year Sale Price Year Over Year
2021 2022 Difference 2023 Difference
(%) (%)
Jan $525,000 $570,000 8.6% $636,500 11.7%
Feb $577,000 $554,000 -4.0% $622,500 12.4%
Mar $563,075 $640,000 13.7% $683,000 6.7%
Apr $570,000 $681,200 19.5% $662,500 -2.7%
May $600,000 $664,500 10.8% $712,500 7.2%
Jun $584,391 $695,000 18.9%
Jul $650,000 $675,000 3.8%
Aug $612,500 $650,600 6.2%
Sep $575,000 $637,401 10.9%
Oct $585,000 $605,000 3.4%
Nov $551,250 $601,384 9.1%
Dec $610,000 $600,000 -1.6%
Annual $583,601 $631,174 8.2%
YTD, thru May $621,940 $663,400 6.7%

 

In 2022, prices were up a hefty 8.2 % from 2021. During the first 5 months of 2023 when the “crash” was predicted, that trend continued with a 6.7% rise from 2022.

One variable that has gone to pieces in the number of sales.  Please see the below chart:

WEST CHESTER, DOWNINGTOWN, GREAT VALLEY, NUMBER OF SALES
Month Sales Sales Sales
2021 2022 2023
Jan 102 99 60
Feb 104 70 44
Mar 154 120 88
Apr 157 113 84
May 168 136 100
Jun 242 197
Jul 190 177
Aug 213 156
Sep 183 134
Oct 161 112
Nov 154 96
Dec 154 96
Annual 1982 1506
Annual Sales Drop -24.0%
Thru May 685 538 376
22 to 23 -21.5%
21 to23 -45.1%

Sales were down by 21.5% in 2022; and down by a whopping 45.1% in the first 5 months of 2023 compared to the first five months of 2021.

That is HUGE!!!

But prices are still going up because buyer demand is high and there are fewer houses for sale. Higher demand and lowered supply always results in higher prices.

NOW WHAT DID THE EXPERTS PREDICT JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO?

During the fourth quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:

Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:

“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:

“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.”

Goldman Sachs:

“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”

The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence

These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.

The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed

However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months.

In a report just released, Goldman Sachs explained:

“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”

Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:

Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.

One of the lessons here is that all real estate is local and to understand the market you really should consult a local expert rather than a national onel

Bottom Line

When the forecasts of significant home price depreciation were made last fall, they were made with megaphones. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts all broadcasted the news of an eminent crash in prices.

Now, forecasters are saying the worst is over and it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as they originally projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility – some may say duty – to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move. I would like to become that real estate expert upon whom you can lean.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to buy that first house or to sell and make that move up buy?  Again, absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, let’s connect
  • There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the ‘unicorn’ years. Let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you keep everything in proper perspective.

MEDIA, RADNOR, MARPLE NEWTOWN, GARNET VALLEY, SPRINGFIELD REAL ESTATE, REALLY STRONG

Comparing real estate metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market. That’s due to possible variability in the market making the comparison less meaningful or accurate. Unpredictable events can have a significant impact on the circumstances and outcomes being compared.

Comparing this year’s numbers to the two ‘unicorn’ years we just experienced is almost worthless. By ‘unicorn,’ what people are trying to convey is this:

“Something that is greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.”

The pandemic profoundly changed real estate in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Some effects are still being felt, but things are normal enough now so that we can see some local and national trends.  Here are some of the pieces.

  • Waves of first-time and second-home buyers entered the market.
  • Already low mortgage rates were driven to historic lows.
  • The forbearance plan all but eliminated foreclosures.
  • Home values reached appreciation levels never seen before.
  • The demand for a home of our own skyrocketed, and people needed a home office and big backyard.

It was a market that forever had been “greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” A ‘unicorn’ year.

Now, things are getting back to normal. The ‘unicorns’ have galloped off.

Comparing today’s market to those years now makes some sense. Here are three examples of national trends and how our local market compares (and is more desirable)

Buyer Demand 

If you look at the headlines, you’d think there aren’t any buyers out there. We still sell over 10,000 houses a day in the United States. Of course, buyer demand is down from the two ‘unicorn’ years. But, according to ShowingTime, if we compare it to normal years (2017-2019), we can see that buyer activity is still strong (see graph below):

So showing activity is up nationallly but what about local? An even better measure of buyer interest is how long it takes a house to get sold. Right now the median days on market in our area is only 6.  That compares to 37 days on  market just a few years ago.

What this means for sellers is that if you have a house that you want to get on the market (make that move up buy perhaps?), you can  be assured that your house will sell quickly if it is priced correctly and marketed well.

Home Prices

We can’t compare today’s home price increases to the last couple of years. According to Freddie Mac, 2020 and 2021 each had historic appreciation numbers. Here’s a graph also showing the more normal years (2017-2019):

We can see that we’re returning to more normal home value increases. There were several months of minimal depreciation in the second half of 2022. However, according to Fannie Mae, the market has returned to more normal appreciation in the first quarter of this year.

Again, how does this compare to our area. From the above you can see  that the national average for home appreciation was 5%.  Check out the below chart for the local details.

Median prices were up by 6.4% in 2022; moreover, the trend continued into 2023 with year over year increases in 3 of the first 5 months.

What this means for buyers, both first time and move up, is that if you make that purchase now,  you can be reasonably sure that your house will only increase in value in the future.

I would not let the recent rise in interest rates discourage you from making a move.  I doubt if we will ever see mortgage rates in the 3-4% range again. If you put off making a move, the most likely effect is  that you will  miss out on several months (or perhaps years) of price appreciation.

WALLINGFORD SWARTHMORE, ROSE TREE MEDIA, RADNOR,
MARPLE NEWTOWN, SPRINGFIELD MEDIAN SALES PRICE
SINGLE FAMILY, DETACHED
Month Sale Price Sale Price Sale Price
2021 2022 2023
Jan $500,000 $552,500 $616,376
Feb $500,000 $500,000 $733,500
Mar $575,000 $552,500 $550,000
Apr $526,000 $527,500 $540,000
May $563,500 $621,000 $600,000
Jun $582,500 $585,000
Jul $589,450 $587,500
Aug $552,500 $671,900
Sep $536,500 $607,500
Oct $537,500 $570,000
Nov $531,000 $623,000
Dec $500,000 $510,000
Annual $541,163 $575,700
Annual Difference $34,538
Annual % Diff 6.4%
YTD  Thru May, 22 to 23 $550,700 $607,975
Diff Thru May, 22 to 23 $57,275
% Diff Thru May, 22 to 23 10.4%

Foreclosures 

There have already been some startling headlines about the percentage increases in foreclosure filings. Of course, the percentages will be up. They are increases over historically low foreclosure rates. Here’s a graph with information from ATTOM, a property data provider:

There will be an increase over the numbers of the last three years now that the moratorium on foreclosures has ended. There are homeowners who lose their home to foreclosure every year, and it’s heartbreaking for those families. But, if we put the current numbers into perspective, we’ll realize that we’re actually going back to the normal filings from 2017-2019.

I have only anecdotal  data on local foreclosures.  That comes from associates in the mortgage lending busness. They indicate that they see nothing unusual.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move. I would like to become that real estate expert upon whom you can lean.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to buy that first house or to sell and make that move up buy?  Again, absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, let’s connect
  • There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the ‘unicorn’ years. Let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you keep everything in proper perspective.
  • If you would like to listen to our recent 12 minute podcast on this topic, please just click the below hyperlink, 
    bit.ly/Local_Really_Strong_Real_Estate_Market

MEDIA, RADNOR, MARPLE NEWTOWN, GARNET VALLEY, SPRINGFIELD BEAT NATIONAL REAL ESTATE MARKET BY A LOT

If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. Contrary to those headlines, home prices aren’t in a freefall. The latest data tells a very different and much more positive story. Local home price trends still vary by market, but here’s what the national data tells us.  More great news about local home prices later, but first here is a look at the national scene.

If we take a year-over-year view, home prices stayed positive – they just appreciated more slowly than they did at the peak of the pandemic. To get a more detailed picture of some of the trends in the market, we need to look at monthly data.

The monthly graphs below use recent reports from three sources to show that the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are on their way back up nationally.

The story this more detailed monthly view tells us is that the last year has been a tale of two halves in the housing market. In the first half of 2022, home prices were climbing, and they peaked in June. Then, in July, home prices started to decline (shown in red in the graphs above). And by roughly August or September, the trend began to stabilize. As we look at the most recent data for the early part of 2023, these graphs also show a recent rebound in momentum with prices ticking back up. Monthly changes in home prices are gaining steam as we move into the busier spring season.

While one to two months doesn’t make a trend, the fact that all three reports show prices have stabilized is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data conveys a clear, but early, consensus that a national shift is taking place today. In essence, home prices are starting to tick back up.

Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research at Black Knight, says this about home price trends:

“Just five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.”

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains the limited supply of homes available for sale is contributing to this positive turn:

“ . . . prices in many large metros appeared to have turned the corner, with the U.S. recording a second month of consecutive monthly gains. . . . The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle.” 

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR MEDIA, RADNOR, MARPLE NEWTOWN, GARNET VALLEY AND SPRINGFIELD?

Check out the below chart that shows median sales prices single family detached houses from January, 2021 through May of 2023.

MEDIA, RADNOR, MARPLE NEWTOWN, GARNET VALLEY, SPRINGFIELD
MEDIAN SALES PRICES, SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOMES.
Month Sale Price Sale Price Sale Price
2021 2021 2021
Jan $518,900 $550,000 $722,500
Feb $505,200 $500,000 $752,000
Mar $575,000 $545,500 $550,000
Apr $525,500 $501,500 $545,000
May $547,500 $623,000 $600,000
Jun $565,000 $599,000
Jul $600,000 $605,000
Aug $550,000 $675,000
Sep $546,500 $613,000
Oct $543,500 $570,000
Nov $540,000 $630,000
Dec $500,000 $510,000
Annual $543,092 $576,833
Year over Year Prices up in 9 of 12 months in 2022.
Annual Prices up by 6.2% in 2022
Trend continues for 4 of first 5 months in 2023

National year over year prices were down in almost every month during the last six months of the year. NOT SO IN OUR AREA WHERE PRICES WERE UP IN EACH OF THE LAST 6 MONTHS.

ANNUAL PRICE INCREASE IN 2022 WAS 6.2%.

AND THE TREND CONTINUES IN 4 OF THE FIRST 5 MONTHS IN 2023.

HERE’S WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

  • Sellers: If you’ve been holding off on selling because you’re worried about what was happening with home prices and how it would impact the value of your home, it may be time to jump back in and partner with an agent to list your house. You don’t have to put your needs on hold any longer because the latest data shows a turn in your favor.
  • Buyers: If you’ve been waiting to buy because you didn’t want to purchase something that would decrease in value, you now have the peace of mind things are looking up. Buying now lets you make your move before home prices climb more and gives you the chance to own an asset that typically grows in value over time.
  • I endorse these opinions from the national experts, EVEN MORE STRONGLY FOR OUR AREA.
  • IF YOU ARE A FIRST TIME BUYER OR A MOVE UP BUYER, THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST TIME WE WILL EVER SEE TO MAKE THOSE MOVES.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to buy that first house or to sell and make that move up buy?  Again, absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, let’s connect.
  • If you would like to listen to our recent 12minute podcast on this topic, please just click the below hyperlink, 
    bit.ly/Chesco_Delco_Home_Prices_Beat_National_By_A_Lot

WEST CHESTER, DOWNINGTOWN, GREAT VALLEY, BEAT NATIONAL REAL ESTATE MARKET BY A LOT

If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. Contrary to those headlines, home prices aren’t in a freefall. The latest data tells a very different and much more positive story. Local home price trends still vary by market, but here’s what the national data tells us.  More great news about local home prices later, but first here is a look at the national scene.

If we take a year-over-year view, home prices stayed positive – they just appreciated more slowly than they did at the peak of the pandemic. To get a more detailed picture of some of the trends in the market, we need to look at monthly data.

The monthly graphs below use recent reports from three sources to show that the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are on their way back up nationally.

The story this more detailed monthly view tells us is that the last year has been a tale of two halves in the housing market. In the first half of 2022, home prices were climbing, and they peaked in June. Then, in July, home prices started to decline (shown in red in the graphs above). And by roughly August or September, the trend began to stabilize. As we look at the most recent data for the early part of 2023, these graphs also show a recent rebound in momentum with prices ticking back up. Monthly changes in home prices are gaining steam as we move into the busier spring season.

While one to two months doesn’t make a trend, the fact that all three reports show prices have stabilized is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data conveys a clear, but early, consensus that a national shift is taking place today. In essence, home prices are starting to tick back up.

Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research at Black Knight, says this about home price trends:

“Just five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.”

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains the limited supply of homes available for sale is contributing to this positive turn:

“ . . . prices in many large metros appeared to have turned the corner, with the U.S. recording a second month of consecutive monthly gains. . . . The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle.” 

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR WEST CHESTER, DOWNINGTOWN AND GREAT VALLEY?

Check out the below chart that shows median sales prices single family detached houses from January, 2021 through May of 2023. 

WEST CHESTER, DOWNINGTOWN, GREAT VALLEY, MEDIAN SALES PRICE, SINGLE FAMILY
Month Sale Price Sale Price Difference % Diff Sale Price Difference % Diff
   2021    2022 2023
     ($)      ($)       ($)    (%)      ($) (      $)    (%)
Jan $525,000 $565,000 $40,000 7.6% $636,500 $71,500 12.7%
Feb $577,000 $554,000 ($23,000) -4.0% $620,000 $66,000 11.9%
Mar $557,188 $635,000 $77,812 14.0% $671,500 $36,500 5.7%
Apr $557,500 $685,600 $128,100 23.0% $660,750 ($24,850) -3.6%
May $591,820 $657,000 $65,180 11.0% $723,800 $66,800 10.2%
Jun $575,000 $687,977 $112,977 19.6%
Jul $642,500 $675,000 $32,500 5.1%
Aug $604,000 $647,500 $43,500 7.2%
Sep $575,000 $637,401 $62,401 10.9%
Oct $580,000 $605,000 $25,000 4.3%
Nov $550,000 $599,500 $49,500 9.0%
Dec $610,000 $590,000 ($20,000) -3.3%
Annual $578,751 $628,248 $49,498 8.6%
Year to Date $662,510 $43,190
Year over Year Up, 10 of 12 months in 2022
Year over Year Up, 4 of 5 months Year to Date in 2023

National year over year prices were down in almost every month during the last six months of the year. NOT SO IN OUR AREA WHERE PRICES WERE UP IN 5 OF THE LAST 6 MONTH.

ANNUAL PRICE INCREASE IN 2022 WAS 8.6%.

AND THE TREND CONTINUES IN 4 OF THE FIRST 5 MONTHS IN 2023.

Here’s What This Means for You

  • Sellers: If you’ve been holding off on selling because you’re worried about what was happening with home prices and how it would impact the value of your home, it may be time to jump back in and partner with an agent to list your house. You don’t have to put your needs on hold any longer because the latest data shows a turn in your favor.
  • Buyers: If you’ve been waiting to buy because you didn’t want to purchase something that would decrease in value, you now have the peace of mind things are looking up. Buying now lets you make your move before home prices climb more and gives you the chance to own an asset that typically grows in value over time.
  • I endorse these opinions from the national experts, EVEN MORE STRONGLY FOR OUR AREA.
  • IF YOU ARE A FIRST TIME BUYER OR A MOVE UP BUYER, THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST TIME WE WILL EVER SEE TO MAKE THOSE MOVES.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to buy that first house or to sell and make that move up buy?  Again, absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, let’s connect.
  • If you would like to listen to our recent 12minute podcast on this topic, please just click the below hyperlink, 
    bit.ly/Chesco_Delco_Home_Prices_Beat_National_By_A_Lot

WESTCHESTER, PA: WHAT DO EXPERTS SAY ABOUT THE SPRING MARKET?

The housing market’s been going through a lot of change lately, and there’s been uncertainty surrounding what will happen this spring. You may be wondering if more homes will go on the market, what’s next with home prices and mortgage rates, or what the best advice is for someone in your position right now.

Here’s what industry experts are saying right now about the spring housing market and what it means for you:

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic:

“We see more competition among buyers . . . Housing supply also tends to grow during the spring months. And this is also the time of year when relatively more migration happens, as people graduate and move elsewhere looking for jobs.”

Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate:

“I don’t expect big moves in prices in the span of a month, but like the flower buds of spring, the housing market is showing signs of improvement. A pick up in activity with inventory still low does bode well for home prices.”

Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO, CJ Patrick Company:

“If you can find a home you love and can afford at today’s prices, don’t wait. Home prices in most of the country are unlikely to crash, and mortgage rates will only come down very gradually if they decline at all this year.” 

Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist, Zillow:

“The market is still much friendlier this spring for buyers who can overcome affordability hurdles, but buyers are going to see more competition than they might expect because there are not many homes on the market to go around. New listings are increasing, which they almost always do this time of year, but not nearly as quickly as usual.”

WHAT ABOUT WEST CHESTER?

I agree that home prices are steady and/or moving up.  I see little or no chance of any significant price decline in the foreseeable future. Here is why. 

Below chart shows the sales price history for Westchester from January 2021 through April 2023. In 2022, year over year prices were up in 9 of the same12 months from 2021. This trend continues in 2023 in 2 of  the four months. Year to date, prices are up by a substantial 2.5%.

WESTCHESTER AREA SCHOOL DISTRICT, MEDIAN SALES PRICE, SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED
Month Sale Price Sale Price Difference Diff % Sale Price Difference Diff %
2021 2022 2023
Jan $529,950 $607,500 $77,550 14.6% $682,500 $75,000 12.3%
Feb $495,000 $618,500 $123,500 24.9% $650,000 $31,500 5.1%
Mar $553,450 $703,500 $150,050 27.1% $695,000 ($8,500) -1.2%
Apr $648,800 $685,000 $36,200 5.6% $652,500 ($32,500) -4.7%
May $641,800 $730,000 $88,200 13.7%
Jun $572,500 $738,750 $166,250 29.0%
Jul $685,000 $698,000 $13,000 1.9%
Aug $630,000 $625,000 ($5,000) -0.8%
Sep $600,000 $655,000 $55,000 9.2%
Oct $615,000 $610,000 ($5,000) -0.8%
Nov $630,000 $576,000 ($54,000) -8.6%
Dec $610,000 $635,000 $25,000 4.1%
Annual $600,958 $656,854 $55,896 9.3%
YTD thru 4/27 $653,625 $670,000 $16,375 2.5%
Year Over Year Price Up in 9 of 12 months in 2022
Year Over Year Price Up in 2 of 4 months in 2023
YTD up by 2.5% in 2023

I believe these trends will continue. Why you ask.? Well, median days on market for the last 3 months have been 5, 4 and 6 respectively.  That means that if you have a home for sale and it is properly marketed and priced, you can reasonably expect to have an acceptable agreement of sale in about a week. That tells me there are a lot of buyers out there ready and willing to buy.

Also, we are still short on inventory. Decades of statistics tell us that we need 6 months of inventory to have a “Balanced Market”. That is one where we have about equal numbers of buyers and sellers. Prices will still go up in this situation but about in tandem with the rate of inflation. Right now we have only 3 months of inventory, which means more buyers than sellers. What always happens when demand in higher than supply? Prices go up and that is what I expect to happen.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR BUYERS AND SELLERS TODAY? 

  • If you are a first time buyer, you can be quite sure that the value of your property will go up and you will have taken the best first step you can make to improve your family net worth.
  • For move up buyers with a home to sell, you can be quite sure that if your house is properly marketed and priced, you can expect an acceptable agreement of sale in about a week.
  • And you can also expect that the move up house you buy will continue to increase in value.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move this spring.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to sell and make that move up buy?  Again,  absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • If you would prefer to listen to our recent 12 minute podcast on this subject, please click here: https://bit.ly/Westchester_And_Media_Spring_Market

 

DELAWARE COUNTY, ARE LOWER HOME PRICES COMING?

DELAWARE COUNTY, ARE Lower Home Prices COMING?

As the housing market continues to change, you may be wondering where it’ll go from here. One factor you’re probably thinking about is home prices, which have come down a bit since they peaked last June. And you’ve likely heard something in the news or on social media about a price crash on the horizon. As a result, you may be holding off on buying a home until prices drop significantly. But that’s not the best strategy.

A recent survey from Zonda shows 53% of millennials are still renting right now because they’re waiting for home prices to come down. But here’s the thing: the most recent data shows that home prices appear to have bottomed out and are now on the rise again. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, reports:

“U.S. home prices rose by 0.8% in February . . . indicating that prices in most markets have already bottomed out.”

And the latest data from Black Knight shows the same shift. The graph below compares home price trends in November to those in February:

So, should you keep waiting to buy a home until prices come down? If you factor in what the experts are saying, you probably shouldn’t. The data shows prices are increasing in much of the country, not decreasing. And the latest data from the Home Price Expectation Survey indicates that experts project home prices will rise steadily and return to more normal levels of appreciation after 2023. The best way to understand what home values are doing in your area is to work with a local real estate professional who can give you the latest insights and expert advice.

ARE PRICES GOING TO GO UP OR DOWN IN DELAWARE COUNTY?

This is really one of the most central questions for buyers and sellers.

  • First time buyers want to know if prices are going to go lower right after they buy. If they are it would make sense to wait.
  • Move up buyers with a house to sell need to know if they can get a fair price for their present house and if their next house is going to be worth more or less in the next months and years.

My recommendation to both groups is to BUY NOW.  Here is why.

The below chart shows,  month by month,  year over year median sales price in Chesco.

The year over year median sales price was up in 10 of 12 months in 2022.  Up a very healthy 4.8% for the year. The trend continues in 3 of 4 months in 2023. YTD, through April 23 is up 3.1% in 2023

DELAWARE COUNTY, MEDIAN HOME PRICES, SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED, 2021 THROUGH APRIL 20, 2023
Month Sale Price, Median 2021 Sale Price, Median 2022 Sale Price, Median 2023
Jan $359,000 $360,000 $375,000
Feb $335,450 $376,000 $390,000
Mar $369,500 $403,500 $400,000
Apr $400,000 $415,000 $437,500
May $400,000 $427,000
Jun $410,000 $451,500
Jul $425,000 $420,000
Aug $415,000 $430,000
Sep $385,000 $385,000
Oct $400,000 $390,000
Nov $384,900 $410,000
Dec $380,000 $420,000
Annual $388,654 $407,333
Annual Difference $18,679
 % Difference 4.8%
YTD, thru 0420 $388,625 $400,625
Price Difference, YTD thru 4/20/23 $12,000
 % Difference 3.1%

 

I expect this to continue into the forseeable future. Why?  Because we still have very low inventory of houses for sale. To have a balanced market with about the same number of buyers and sellers we need 6 months of inventory. Right now we have only between 2 and 3 months. That says that we have more buyers than sellers. And what always happens when there is more demand than supply?  Prices go up. Stated differently, we are still in a very strong Sellers’ Market.

I expect prices to continue to increase in Delaware county. Stated differently, I see little chance that we will have any sigificant price decline in the forseeable future.

Bottom Line

If you’re waiting to buy a home until prices come down, you may want to reconsider. Let’s connect to make sure you understand what’s happening in our local housing market.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move this spring.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to sell and make that move up buy?  Again,  absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say.
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • And if you would like to listen to our 12 minute podcast on this topic, please click on https://bit.ly/Are_Lower_Home_Prices_Coming