DELAWARE COUNTY, 2 THINGS SELLERS NEED TO KNOW THIS SPRING

DELAWARE  COUNTY, 2 THINGS SELLERS NEED TO KNOW THIS SPRING

A lot has changed over the past year, and you might be wondering what’s in store for the spring housing market. If you’re planning to sell your house this season, here’s what real estate experts are saying you should keep in mind.

1. HOUSES THAT ARE PRICED RIGHT ARE STILL SELLING

Houses that are updated and priced at their current market value are still selling. Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“. . . sellers who price and market their home competitively shouldn’t have a problem finding a buyer.”

The need to price your house right is so important today because the market has changed so much over the past year. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, explains:

“With a smaller pool of buyers today and more competition from other homes on the market, homesellers will likely need to adjust their price expectations in the market this spring.”

While this spring housing market is different than last year’s, sellers with proper expectations who lean on a real estate expert for the best advice on pricing their house well are still finding success. And that’s great news if you’re thinking about selling.

2. BUYERS ARE STILL OUT THERE

As mortgage rates have risen and remain volatile, some buyers have pressed pause on their plans. But there are still plenty of reasons people are buying homes today. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, spells out the mindset of today’s buyers:

“For some buyers, higher mortgage rates simply means buying a home is out of the question unless home prices fall. For others, higher mortgage rates will be a hurdle but ultimately will not keep them from getting back into the market after sitting on the sidelines for months.”

That’s why, if you’re interested in selling your house this spring, it’s helpful to work with a real estate agent who can help connect you with those buyers who are ready to purchase a home.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR DELAWARE COUNTY?

If you are thinking about selling and making a move up buy, there are two major factors to consider.

  • Will I be able to sell for the price I think is fair,  in this increased interest rate market?
  • How long will it probably take?

To answer the first question, please take a look at the table below. It shows median price of a single family home in Delaware county for the last 2+ years. Please note that the median price for 10 of the 12 months in 2022 was higher than for the same month in 2021.  This trend continued into January and February, 2023.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE, DELAWARE COUNTY, SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED.
Month Sale Price Sale Price Difference % Diff Sale Price Difference % Diff
2021 2022 2023
Jan $359,000 $360,000 $1,000 0.3% $375,000 $15,000 4.2%
Feb $335,450 $376,000 $40,550 12.1% $390,000 $14,000 3.7%
Mar $369,500 $403,500 $34,000 9.2% $387,500 ($16,000) -4.0%
Apr $400,000 $415,000 $15,000 3.8%
May $400,000 $427,000 $27,000 6.8%
Jun $410,000 $451,500 $41,500 10.1%
Jul $425,000 $420,000 ($5,000) -1.2%
Aug $415,000 $430,000 $15,000 3.6%
Sep $385,000 $385,000 $0 0.0%
Oct $400,000 $390,000 ($10,000) -2.5%
Nov $384,900 $410,000 $25,100 6.5%
Dec $380,000 $420,000 $40,000 10.5%
Annual $388,654 $407,333 $18,679 4.8%
Average Sales Price, 1Q, 2022 $379,833
Average Sales Price, 1Q, 2023 $384,167
Difference $4,333
% Diff 1.1%

 

March 2023 median price was lower than the same month in 2022. Could this mean that we have reached a turning point and that prices will probably be going down from here on?  Maybe, but I do not think so. Even if we have a modest dip, price appreciation should resume quickly. That means that you can get a reasonable price for your home, if you choose to make a move up buy.

With respect to how long will it take, Days on Market for Delaware County for the last 3 months have been 16, 18 and 11. That means that if  your house is priced right and marketed well, you can reasonably expect to have an offer you can accept no more that 2-3 weeks.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move this spring.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to sell and make that move up buy?  Absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say. 
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.

CHESTER COUNTY, 2 THINGS SELLERS NEED TO KNOW THIS SPRING

CHESTER  COUNTY, 2 Things Sellers Need To Know This Spring

A lot has changed over the past year, and you might be wondering what’s in store for the spring housing market. If you’re planning to sell your house this season, here’s what real estate experts are saying you should keep in mind.

1. Houses That Are Priced Right Are Still Selling

Houses that are updated and priced at their current market value are still selling. Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“. . . sellers who price and market their home competitively shouldn’t have a problem finding a buyer.”

The need to price your house right is so important today because the market has changed so much over the past year. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, explains:

“With a smaller pool of buyers today and more competition from other homes on the market, homesellers will likely need to adjust their price expectations in the market this spring.”

While this spring housing market is different than last year’s, sellers with proper expectations who lean on a real estate expert for the best advice on pricing their house well are still finding success. And that’s great news if you’re thinking about selling.

2. Buyers Are Still Out There

As mortgage rates have risen and remain volatile, some buyers have pressed pause on their plans. But there are still plenty of reasons people are buying homes today. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, spells out the mindset of today’s buyers:

“For some buyers, higher mortgage rates simply means buying a home is out of the question unless home prices fall. For others, higher mortgage rates will be a hurdle but ultimately will not keep them from getting back into the market after sitting on the sidelines for months.”

That’s why, if you’re interested in selling your house this spring, it’s helpful to work with a real estate agent who can help connect you with those buyers who are ready to purchase a home.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CHESTER COUNTY

If you are thinking about selling and making a move up buy, there are two major factors to consider.

  • Will I be able to sell for the price I think is fair,  in this increased interest rate market?
  • How long will it probably take?

To answer the first question, please take a look at the table below. It shows median price of a single family home in Chester county for the last 2+ years. Please note that the median price for 11 of the 12 months in 2022 was higher than for the same month in 2021.  This trend continued into January, 2023.

February and March 2023 median price was lower than the same month in 2022. Could this mean that we have reached a turning point and that prices will probably be going down from here on.  Maybe, but i do not think so. Even if we have a modest dip, price appreciation should resume quickly. That means that you can get a reasonable price for your home, if you choose to make a move up buy.

With respect to how long will it take, Days on Market for Chester County for the last 3 moths have been 18, 13 and 10. That means that if  your house is priced right and marketed well, you can reasonably expect to have an offer you can accept no more that 2-3 weeks.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE, CHESTER COUNTY, PA, SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED
Month Sale Price Sale Price Difference % Diff Sale Price Difference % Diff
2021 2022 2022-2021 2023 2023-2022
Jan $452,500 $484,900 $32,400 7.2% $527,500 $42,600 8.8%
Feb $441,700 $510,000 $68,300 15.5% $507,500 ($2,500) -0.5%
Mar $495,000 $525,000 $30,000 6.1% $510,000 ($15,000) -2.9%
Apr $481,250 $545,000 $63,750 13.2%
May $512,021 $531,055 $19,034 3.7%
Jun $515,000 $600,000 $85,000 16.5%
Jul $531,000 $575,000 $44,000 8.3%
Aug $498,000 $550,000 $52,000 10.4%
Sep $479,900 $540,000 $60,100 12.5%
Oct $494,075 $549,500 $55,425 11.2%
Nov $499,000 $545,000 $46,000 9.2%
Dec $508,961 $500,000 ($8,961) -1.8%
Annual $492,367 $537,955 $45,587 9.3%
Average Sales Price, 1Q, 2022 $506,633
Average Sales Price, 1Q, 2023 $515,000
Difference $8,367
% Diff 1.7%

 

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move this spring.
  • Do I think that now is a good time to sell and make that move up buy?  Absolutely yes.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say. 
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. By selling your house and leveraging your equity, it can be easier to pay for your next home. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.
  • There are still clear opportunities for sellers this spring. If you’re wondering if it’s the right time to make a move, let’s connect today.
  • If you would like to listen to our recent 14 minute podcast on this topic, please click on
    bit.ly/Chester_County_2_Things_Sellers_Need_To_Know

 

DELAWARE COUNTY, TWO BIG ISSUES IN THE HOUSING MARKET, WHAT THAT MEANS TO YOU

DELAWARE COUNTY, Two Big Issues IN THE HOUSING MARKET, WHAT THAT MEANS TO YOU

The Two Big Issues the Housing Market’s Facing Right Now | MyKCM

CONCLUSIONS:

  • First issue is that we still have a limited number of houses for sale.
  • Second issue is that higher mortgage rates have some prospective buyers and sellers on the sidelines.
  • In spite of this right now is a better time for both first time buyers and move up sellers and buyers than waiting for interest rates and/or prices to come down.

DISCUSSION

The biggest challenge the housing market’s facing is how few homes there are for sale. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains the root causes of today’s low supply:

“Two dynamics are keeping existing-home inventory historically low – rate-locked existing homeownersandthe fear of not finding something to buy.”

Let’s break down these two big issues in today’s housing market.

Rate-Locked Homeowners

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the average interest rate for current homeowners with mortgages is less than 4% (see graph below):

But today, the typical mortgage rate offered to buyers is over 6%. As a result, many homeowners are opting to stay put instead of moving to another home with a higher borrowing cost. This is a situation known as being rate locked.

When so many homeowners are rate locked and reluctant to sell, it’s a challenge for a housing market that needs more inventory. However, experts project mortgage rates will gradually fall this year, and that could mean more people will be willing to move as that happens.

The Fear of Not Finding Something To Buy

The other factor holding back potential sellers is the fear of not finding another home to buy if they move. Worrying about where they’ll go has left many on the sidelines as they wait for more homes to come to the market. That’s why, if you’re on the fence about selling, it’s important to consider all your options. That includes newly built homes, especially right now when builders are offering concessions like mortgage rate buydowns.

What Does This Mean for You?

Let’s take a deeper dive into the facts and see what they say about what buyers and sellers should do now.

These two issues are keeping the supply of homes for sale lower than pre-pandemic levels. But if you want to sell your house, today’s market is a sweet spot that can work to your advantage. In Delaware county,  houses are still selling quickly. Just check out the below data.

DELAWARE COUNTY, MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET
JAN 2021 – FEB 2023
Month CDOM 2021 CDOM 2022 CDOM  2023
Jan 7 15 12
Feb 12 12 12
Mar 7 7
Apr 6 7
May 6 6
Jun 6 6
Jul 7 6
Aug 7 8
Sep 10 9
Oct 10 11
Nov 10 8
Dec 12 9

Median Days on Market increased from 6-10 days over the past two years, up to 12 days in December and January. What that means is that if you put your house on the market you can reasonably expect to get an acceptable agreement of sale in 12 days or in a little less than two weeks.  Bottom line, when your house is professionally marketed and priced, you should have no problem selling.

But how about finding that next place to live? For first time buyers with no existing house to sell, that is not an issue. It just will probably take a little longer than it would have a year or so ago.

DELAWARE COUNTY, MONTHS OF INVENTORY, JAN 21 THRU FEB 23
Month Months Of Months Of Months Of
Inventory, 2021 Inventory, 2022 Inventory, 2023
Jan 3 3 4
Feb 5 3 3
Mar 4 3
Apr 4 3
May 4 3
Jun 3 3
Jul 3 3
Aug 3 2
Sep 4 3
Oct 3 3
Nov 3 3
Dec 2 2

 

Also prices are stable and still increasing. To verify please check out the below chart. Median sales price was higher than the same month in the previous year for 9 of the 12 months in 2022.  The same trend continued into 2023.

DELAWARE COUNTY, MEDIAN SALES  PRICE
JAN 2021 THRU FEB 2023
Month Sale Price Sale Price Sale Price
Median 2021 Median 2022 Median 2023
Jan $359,000 $360,000 $375,000
Feb $335,450 $376,000 $390,000
Mar $369,500 $403,500
Apr $400,000 $415,000
May $400,000 $427,000
Jun $410,000 $451,500
Jul $425,000 $420,000
Aug $415,000 $430,000
Sep $385,000 $385,000
Oct $400,000 $390,000
Nov $384,900 $410,000
Dec $380,000 $420,000

 

For the Move Up Buyer, my advice is to consider finding the  house you want and getting an Agreement of Sale before putting your house on the market. Try to negotiate a long settlement (like 90 days) to give you more time to find your next house. Because the Median Days on Market are only 12 days, this should not present a problem.

Is this a little risky? Yes,  but in this low inventory market I think it is a reasonable risk to take to lock in the price for your next house before they go higher.

Be sure to work with a local real estate professional to explore the options you have right now, which could include leveraging your current home equity. According to ATTOM:

“. . . 48 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich in the fourth quarter, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loan balances secured by those properties was no more than 50 percent of their estimated market values.”

This could make a major difference when you move. Work with a local real estate expert to learn how putting your equity to work can keep the cost of your next home down.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

  • For First Time Buyers: Prices are still stable and moving up in Delaware county. Thus it makes sense for you to buy that first house NOW. That way you begin to build your family’s wealth and net worth right away.
  • For Move Up Buyers: Given the low inventory or houses in Delaware county,  your first step should be to get an agreement of sale on the house to which you want to move. That could take longer than normal and you want to insure that you can get into a house you really like.
  • Then get your house on the market. Given the speed with which houses are selling, this presents minimal risk to you.

SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR YOU TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move this spring.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say. 
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.

WHY TODAY’S HOUSING MARKET ISN’T HEADED FOR A CRASH

Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash

Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash | MyKCM

CONCLUSIONS

  • 67% of Americans say a housing market crash is imminent in the next three years. With all the talk in the media lately about shifts in the housing market, it makes sense why so many people feel this way.
  • But I disagree.  Current data shows today’s market is nothing like it was before the housing crash in 2008.
  • Especially with regards to mortgage lending standards

Back Then, Mortgage Standards Were Less Strict

During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. Fannie Mae the Government Sponsored Entity (and to a lesser degree, Freddy Mac) created artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one. Shocking to realize that this was done at the direction of our federal government in a misguided attempt to increase home ownership

As a result,  much greater risk was not only tolerated but encouraged,  in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from Fannie and Freddy.

The graph below uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to help tell this story. In this index, the higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. The lower the number, the harder it is.

This graph also shows just how different things are today compared to the spike in credit availability leading up to the crash. Tighter lending standards have helped prevent a situation that could lead to a wave of foreclosures like the last time.

Foreclosure Volume Has Declined a Lot Since the Crash

Another difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure when the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash, largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show the difference between last time and now:

So even as foreclosures tick up, the total number is still very low. And on top of that, most experts don’t expect foreclosures to go up drastically like they did following the crash in 2008. Bill McBride, Founder of Calculated Risk, explains the impact a large increase in foreclosures had on home prices back then – and how that’s unlikely this time.

“The bottom line is there will be an increase in foreclosures over the next year (from record level lows), but there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.”

The Supply of Homes for Sale Today Is More Limited

For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Supply has increased since the start of this year, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to years of underbuilding homes.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just 2.7-months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is significantly lower than the last time. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did last time, even though some overheated markets may experience slight declines.

Bottom Line

As shown above, housing supply increased dramatically during the 2006 through 2011. That was because investors thought the golden goose would continue laying eggs indefinitely and they kept building more and more houses on speculation. That all came crashing down in 2008 and almost bankrupted the country.

If recent headlines have you worried we’re headed for another housing crash, the data above should help ease those fears. Expert insights and the most current data clearly show that today’s market is nothing like it was last time.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR YOU

  • It’s also important to remember that every local market is different. That’s why it’s essential to lean on an expert for the latest information on the market in your area if you’re planning to make a move this spring.
  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say. 
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.

RADNOR, WALLINGFORD-SWARTHMORE, MEDIA, MARPLE NEWTOWN, GARNET VALLEY, SPRINGFIELD; THE MAJOR BENEFIT OF INVESTING IN A HOME

RADNOR, WALLINGFORD-SWARTHMORE, MEDIA, MARPLE NEWTOWN, GARNET VALLEY, SPRINGFIELD; THE Major Benefit of Investing in a Home

One Major Benefit of Investing in a Home | MyKCM

CONCLUSIONS

  • Is now  good time to buy that first home or
  • Is now a good time to make that Move Up Buy?
  • Almost unequivocally the answer is YES!!!!!

DISCUSSION

Or if you would like to listen to our recent 12 minute long Dad and Daughter Talk Real Estate Broadcast of this topic, just click on https://bit.ly/Major_Benefit_of_Investing_in_a_Home 

One of the many reasons to buy a home is that it’s a major way to build wealth and gain financial stability. According to Freddie Mac: “Building equity through your monthly principal payments and appreciation is a critical part of homeownership that can help you create financial stability.”

With spring approaching, now’s a great time to consider if buying a home makes sense for you. The best way to figure that out is to talk with a trusted real estate professional.

The Largest Part of Most Homeowners’ Net Worth Is Their Equity

You may be surprised to learn just how much of a homeowner’s net worth actually comes from owning their home. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) shares:

“Homeownership is the largest source of wealth among families, with the median value of a primary residence worth about ten times the median value of financial assets held by families. Housing wealth (home equity or net worth) gains are built up through price appreciation and by paying off the mortgage.”

In other words, home equity does more to build the average household’s wealth than anything else. And according to data from First American, this holds true across different income levels (see graph below):

INVESTMENT CASE HISTORY, AUTHOR’S HOME OWNERSHIP EXPERIENCE

We moved to Pennsylvania in 1979 for a job  with Scott Paper Company, back when there was a Scott Paper Company.  Conversations with fellow employees to find a house that was convenient to the job and in a great school district for our 11, 9 and 5 year old daughters led to Wallingford, Delaware county.  We purchased a structurally sound, cosmetically all beat to pieces home for a fixer upper price (still high for the time, please don’t laugh) of $83,000.

After lots of love, elbow grease, marvelous neighbors and wonderful family times, we sold in 2023 (44 years later for $695,000). That is a gain of $612,000. Capital improvements reduce the taxable gain to just under $500,000. That makes the entire gain exempt from income taxes. As opposed to stock market investments on which we pay short or long term capital gains taxes on every profitable transaction. And we also had income tax deductions every year for mortgage interest and property taxes.

That is a compounded rate of return of 4.93% per year.  Historical average annual appreciation rate over several decades in the United States is 3.5%, so we beat the averages. I should add that, for people who are concerned about short term market corrections (like 1980-1986 when prices were flat and 2008-2013 when prices declined by a lot), our gain was achieved despite those lean years.

Now lets take a peek into the future. What probably is in store for a family who buys the median priced home in the above mentioned school districts ($577,000)?  If we assume the average appreciation rate of 3.5%, That is a minimal risk if you plan to stay in the house for at least 5-10 years. With those conditions, here is the estimated home value at 10, 20 and 20 years into the future.

  • 2033, $814,000 Gain of $237,000
  • 2043, $1,148,000, Gain of $571,000
  • 2053, $1,620,000, Gain of $1,043,000

I think you can see how making this investment is going to provide for a much improved net worth after just  few years.

To give you an actual historical summary of how this would have worked for you if you had bought the median priced house in these areas back in 2014, here is the data. This is probably the best estimate we can give you for how it will probably work out in the future also.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE, RADNOR, WALLINGFORD-SWARTHMORE
MEDIA, MARPLE NEWTOWN, GARNET VALLEY AND SPRINGFIELD
Primary Year Sale Price, Median Difference Diff %
2014 $365,000
2015 $375,000 $10,000 2.7%
2016 $390,000 $15,000 4.0%
2017 $415,000 $25,000 6.4%
2018 $415,750 $750 0.2%
2019 $425,000 $9,250 2.2%
2020 $475,000 $50,000 11.8%
2021 $549,450 $74,450 15.7%
2022 $577,000 $27,550 5.0%
Overall $212,000 58.1%

Unfortunately my data does not go back any farther than that. But you get the idea. Eight years ago that would have been an amazing investment.  There is always risk associated with any investment, but with residential real estate, the risk is minimal.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR YOU

  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say. 
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • One of the biggest benefits of owning a home, regardless of your income level, is that it provides financial stability and an avenue to build wealth. Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.

WEST CHESTER, PA WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING WITH HOME PRICES? AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR YOU?

WEST CHESTER, PA What’s Really Happening with Home Prices?

What’s Really Happening with Home Prices? [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

CONCLUSIONS:

  • Home prices in Chester county are not only maintaining their previous levels, they are still strongly accelerating
  • If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, you can be assured that prices will be stable or increasing for the foreseeable future.
  • Numbers of sales are down a lot, but
  • Houses are still selling quickly.
  • Stated differently, you can buy or sell without fear that prices will go down.

DISCUSSION

  • If you’re thinking about selling your house, recent headlines about home prices falling month-over-month may have you second guessing your decision—but perspective matters.
  • While home prices are down slightly month-over-month in some markets, home values are still up almost 10% nationally on a year-over-year basis. A nearly 10% gain is still dramatic compared to the more normal level of appreciation, which is 3-4%.
  • Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.

WHAT’S REALLY GOING ON FOR CHESTER COUNTY

Like the fellow says, all politics is local. Same is true for real estate. The only factors that really matter are those that are happening in our neighborhoods.

Here is a snapshot of Sales Prices in Chester county over the last 2 years +

WEST CHESTER PENNSYLVANIA, MEDIAN SALES PRICES, 2021 THROUGH JANUARY 2023
Month     Sale Price     Sale Price Difference  % Diff Sale Price
Median 2021 Median 2022 Median 2022
Jan $590,000 $615,000 $25,000 4.2% $680,000
Feb $629,000 $625,000 ($4,000) -0.6%
Mar $585,000 $687,800 $102,800 17.6%
Apr $565,000 $730,000 $165,000 29.2%
May $646,300 $730,000 $83,700 13.0%
Jun $575,000 $758,750 $183,750 32.0%
Jul $689,450 $676,000 ($13,450) -2.0%
Aug $649,817 $675,000 $25,183 3.9%
Sep $618,000 $710,000 $92,000 14.9%
Oct $612,500 $655,000 $42,500 6.9%
Nov $630,000 $564,500 ($65,500) -10.4%
Dec $610,000 $685,000 $75,000 12.3%
Totals $616,672 $676,004 $59,332 9.6%

 

As you can see the price realization in West Chester is real and robust.  The entire year from 2021 to 2022 showed a 9.6% gain. The trend continues through January 2023. That is too real and robust to continue as the long term average is about 3.5%. However these data show that the local market is healthy with a strong demand.

What about the scare  headlines that say, THE REAL ESTATE MARKET HAS COLLAPSED. If we only look at numbers of sales, that is true. But if you are a seller or a buyer, what matters to you is can I sell or can I buy and what are the prices. Below is a chart of the numbers of sales in West Chester over the past 2 years +

WEST CHESTER, PA; NUMBERS OF SALES, SINGLE FAMILY HOMES,
Month Sales Sales Diff % Diff Sales Diff % Diff
2021 2022 2023
Jan 53 51 (2) -4% 23 (28) -55%
Feb 34 33 (1) -3%
Mar 67 56 (11) -16%
Apr 51 51 0 0%
May 70 56 (14) -20%
Jun 101 94 (7) -7%
Jul 80 69 (11) -14%
Aug 100 64 (36) -36%
Sep 76 59 (17) -22%
Oct 78 49 (29) -37%
Nov 65 40 (25) -38%
Dec 68 43 (25) -37%
Totals 843 665 (178) -21%

 

Numbers of sales are down a lot. -21% in 2022 and -55% in January, 2023. But that is only part of the story. As we saw above prices are still holding very steady and increasing.  Now how about another huge indicator, how long does it take to get a house sold? Below are the numbers that tell the tale. Homes are still selling rapidly in Chester County. That says there iare still more buyers than sellers. As long as that is true, prices will still be stable or rising, homes will sell quickly and both buyers and sellers can be assured that the market is not collapsing like it did in 2008/9.

CHESTER COUNTY, SINGLE FAMILY HOMES, DAYS ON MARKET
 JAN 2021 THRU JAN 2023
Month CDOM CDOM CDOM
Median 2021 Median 2022 Median 2023
Jan 8 7 15
Feb 9 8
Mar 7 6
Apr 6 5
May 5 6
Jun 6 6
Jul 6 6
Aug 6 7
Sep 7 7
Oct 6 7
Nov 8 7
Dec 7 12

 

RECOMMENDATIONS

  • To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.
  • Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say. 
  • Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.
  • No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.
  • If you’re looking to make that move up buy this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.
  • Let’s connect to find out how much equity you have in your current home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase.

DELAWARE COUNTY HOME VALUES, HAVE WE HIT BOTTOM?

DELAWARE COUNTY Home Values, HAVE WE  Hit BottoM?

Whether you’re already a homeowner or you’re looking to become one, the recent headlines about home prices may leave you with more questions than answers. News stories are talking about home prices falling, and that’s raising concerns about a repeat of what happened to prices in the crash in 2008.

One of the questions that’s on many minds, based on those headlines, is: how much will home prices decline? But what you may not realize is expert forecasters aren’t calling for a free fall in prices. In fact, if you look at the latest data, there’s a case to be made that the biggest portion of month-over-month price depreciation nationally may already behind us – and even those numbers weren’t significant declines on the national level. Instead of how far will they drop, the question becomes: have home values hit bottom?

Let’s take a look at the latest data from several reputable industry sources (see chart below):

Have Home Values Hit Bottom? | MyKCM

The chart above provides a look at the most recent reports from Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Black Knight, and CoreLogic. It shows how, on a national scale, home values have changed month-over-month since January 2022. November and December numbers have yet to come out.

Let’s focus in on what the red numbers tell us. The red numbers are the change in home values over the last four months that have been published. And if we isolate the last four months, what the data shows is, in each case, home price depreciation peaked in August.

While that doesn’t guarantee home price depreciation has hit bottom, it confirms prices aren’t in a free fall, and it may be an early signal that the worst is already behind us. As the numbers for November and December are released, data will be able to further validate this national trend.

SO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN DELAWARE COUNTY?

However, it is true in politics and real estate that all the relevant action is local. So, lets take a look at what has happened to median single family home prices in Delaware county.  The below chart brings it home for a month by month comparison between 2021 and 2022.

DELAWARE COUNTY, MEDIAN SALES PRICES
2021 AND 2022
Month Sale Price, Median 2021 Sale Price, Median 2022 Difference Diff $
Jan $359,000 $360,000 $1,000 0.3%
Feb $335,450 $376,000 $40,550 12.1%
Mar $369,500 $404,200 $34,700 9.4%
Apr $400,000 $415,000 $15,000 3.8%
May $400,000 $427,000 $27,000 6.8%
Jun $410,000 $451,500 $41,500 10.1%
Jul $425,000 $420,000 ($5,000) -1.2%
Aug $415,000 $430,000 $15,000 3.6%
Sep $385,000 $385,000 $0 0.0%
Oct $400,000 $390,000 ($10,000) -2.5%
Nov $384,900 $410,000 $25,100 6.5%
Dec $380,000 $420,000 $40,000 10.5%
Totals $388,654 $407,392 $18,738 4.8%

Month by month every data point for Delaware county shows increasing year over year home prices for every month in 2022 except July and October

For the entire year prices were up by a strong 4.8%. That is higher than the long term average of 3.5% per year. Short term, like the national data points,  it shows that we are not heading for a price collapse.
But what about numbers of home sales. Here is the chart and verbiage on that:
DELAWARE COUNTY, NUMBER OF SALES, 2021 and 2022
Month Sales, Number of 2021 Sales, Number of 2022 Difference % Diff
Jan 277 259 18 -6.5%
Feb 200 227 27 13.5%
Mar 274 282 8 2.9%
Apr 311 301 10 -3.2%
May 350 309 41 -11.7%
Jun 507 407 100 -19.7%
Jul 457 327 130 -28.4%
Aug 402 395 7 -1.7%
Sep 358 283 75 -20.9%
Oct 355 241 114 -32.1%
Nov 370 248 122 -33.0%
Dec 345 225 120 -34.8%
Totals 4206 3504 702 -16.7%

If one is among the ankle biting nay sayers for whom there is never good news,  you could make a case that the real estate market in Delaware county has indeed gone to hell in a hand basket and that dramatic overall collapse must be on the way. Numbers of sales are down in 10 of the 12 months and by almost 17% for the year. That is  downer by any measurement.

However, two other major indicators say no. Inventory is still low at only 2 months. That says there are still a lot more buyers than sellers (more demand than there is supply) which is very bullish for prices.

Also, Days on Market is at a low 9 days. That means that when a home comes on the market, if it is well priced and marketed, the seller can reasonably expect to have an acceptable offer in about 9 days. A “normal” market would be about 30 days. This again indicates that we have a lot more buyers than sellers (more demand than there is supply) which is very bullish for prices.

Bottom Line

Nationally, home prices month-over-month have depreciated for the four months of July through October. However, that is not the case for our local market.

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home this year, I believe now is a good time to do it. The best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.

WHAT SHOULD BE NEXT FOR YOU?

If you have questions about home prices or how much equity you have in your current home, let’s connect so you have an expert’s advice.

To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.

Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say. 

Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.

No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.

EXPERT OPINIONS ABOUT THE 2023 HOUSING MARKET IN CHESTER COUNTY

EX[ERT OPINIONS About the 2023 Housing Market IN CHESTER COUNTY

What Experts Are Saying About the 2023 Housing Market | MyKCM

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home soon, you probably want to know what you can expect from the housing market this year. In 2022, the market underwent a major shift as economic uncertainty and higher mortgage rates reduced buyer demand, slowed the pace of home sales, and moderated home prices. But what about 2023?

An article from HousingWire offers this perspective:

“The red-hot housing market of the past 2 ½ years was characterized by sub-three percent mortgage rates, fast-paced bidding wars and record-low inventory. But more recently, market conditions have done an about-face. . . . now is the opportunity for everyone to become re-educated about what a ‘typical’ housing market looks like.”

This year, experts agree we may see the return of greater stability and predictability in the housing market if inflation continues to ease and mortgage rates stabilize. Here’s what they have to say.

The 2023 forecast from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says:

“While 2022 may be remembered as a year of housing volatility, 2023 likely will become a year of long-lost normalcy returning to the market, . . . mortgage rates are expected to stabilize while home sales and prices moderate after recent highs, . . .”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, adds:

“. . . buyers will not face the extreme competition that was commonplace over the past few years.”

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains home prices will vary by local area, but will net neutral nationwide as the market continues to adjust:

“After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“The housing market, once adjusted to the new normal of higher mortgage rates, will benefit from continued strong demographic-driven demand relative to an overall, long-run shortage of supply.” 

WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT WHAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN IN CHESTER COUNTY?

Home Prices, 2021 and 2022. To make a logical estimate about the future, first we need to understand the recent past. Below is a table that shows median single family home prices in Chester county, by month for 2021 and 2022.

CHESTER COUNTY, MEDIAN SALE PRICE, SINGLE FAMILY HOMES, 2021 AND 2022
Month Price, Median 2021 Price, Median 2022 Difference %
Jan $452,500 $481,948 $29,448 6.5%
Feb $441,700 $510,000 $68,300 15.5%
Mar $495,000 $526,821 $31,821 6.4%
Apr $481,250 $545,000 $63,750 13.2%
May $512,021 $531,055 $19,034 3.7%
Jun $515,000 $600,000 $85,000 16.5%
Jul $531,000 $575,000 $44,000 8.3%
Aug $498,000 $550,000 $52,000 10.4%
Sep $479,900 $537,500 $57,600 12.0%
Oct $494,075 $549,500 $55,425 11.2%
Nov $499,000 $545,000 $46,000 9.2%
Dec $508,961 $500,000 ($8,961) -1.8%
Totals $492,367 $537,652 $45,285 9.2%

Every month of 2022 was higher than the same month in 2021, except for December. That tells us that prices are still stable to increasing in Chester County.

So much for history, what about the future?  Two potent predictors of future prices are Months of Inventory and Days on Market.
Below is a chart of Months of Inventory for Single Family Homes in Chester County.
CHESTER COUNTY, MONTHS OF INVENTORY, SINGLE FAMILY HOMES, 2021 AND 2022
Month Months Of Inventory 2021 Months Of Inventory 2022
Jan 5 4
Feb 6 6
Mar 5 4
Apr 5 4
May 5 4
Jun 3 3
Jul 4 3
Aug 3 3
Sep 4 3
Oct 4 4
Nov 4 3
Dec 3 2

History tells us that 6 months of inventory are needed for a balanced market with about the same numbers of buyers and sellers.  Under six months says that there are more buyers than sellers, or there is high demand and low supply. When that happen prices go up.

Another good indicator of demand vs supply is how many days are required to get an agreement of sale on houses that are listed for sale.

CHESTER COUNTY, DAYS ON MARKET, SINGLE FAMILY HOMES, 2021 AND 2022
Month CDOM, Median 2021 CDOM, Median 2022
Jan 8 7
Feb 9 8
Mar 7 6
Apr 6 5
May 5 6
Jun 6 6
Jul 6 6
Aug 6 7
Sep 7 7
Oct 6 7
Nov 8 7
Dec 7 13
In a “Normal” balanced  market, it usually takes about 30 days on average to obtain an acceptable agreement of sale. For the last two years, 6-8 days has been common which is extremely bullish for prices.
My judgment is that even with the dramatic rise in interest rates (from 3 to 6+), prices will be stable to modestly increasing  over the next year.

WHAT SHOULD BE NEXT FOR YOU?

If you have questions about home prices or how much equity you have in your current home, let’s connect so you have an expert’s advice.

To get a quick update of what is new in real estate, click here to check out our new videos.

Interested in what recent clients think of my service? Click here to read what they say. 

Interested to know what your house is worth? Click here to get the most extensive and accurate estimate of home value that is available on the Internet. No cost or obligation of course.

No doubt, the housing market is shifting, and it can be a confusing place right now. I suggest that we connect so that I can help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening. Minimize the fear or uncertainty that could change your plans. If you’re unsure about how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, text or call me at 484-574-4088 or go to my web site, (johnherreid.com) and lets set up a time to meet, either on line or in person. I have the software so that we can meet virtually and make the best use of your time.

Bottom Line

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home this year, the best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest market insights is to partner with a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect. I would like to interview for the job of becoming your trusted real estate advisor.